Global oil supply fell by 2.4 million bpd in June to a 9-year low of 86.9 million bpd. Global attention is increasingly focused on the need to accelerate clean energy transitions in order to mitigate the risks of climate change. This is followed by China, which consumes 11.75 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 12% of total consumption, and India, which consumes about 4.49 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.6% of consumption. The prediction, which sees oil demand … All three of these countries have the three largest populations in the world. The International Energy Agency cut its 2020 global oil demand forecast again on Tuesday, as rising cases of COVID-19 suggest economic recovery will be … The arrival of the coronavirus is rattling a global oil market that was already facing challenges. In 2019 the US Gulf Coast became the largest seaborne crude oil export hub outside the Middle East, supplying 2.6 mb/d to world markets. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. Against a background of collapsing global oil demand, OPEC+ producers met on 6 March to review the market situation. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 mb/d. The International Energy Agency, in a forecast that already looks dated, said on March 9 that 2020 oil demand would contract by about 90,000 barrels a day. The increase reflects OPEC's announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. Recent price volatility could have a major impact on US production. The world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 mb/d by 2025, which more than covers growth in demand. A progressive recovery takes place through the second half of 2020. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, global oil demand growth is set to weaken as consumption of transport fuels increases more slowly. Nevertheless, investors continue to ratchet up pressure on the industry to sharpen its focus on sustainability issues while activists, especially in Europe and North America, seek to hinder new oil developments. That's down by 0.23 million bpd from the previous month's estimate. Oil advances on U.S. inventory draw, but demand fears weigh Published Tue, Dec 29 2020 11:09 PM EST Updated Wed, Dec 30 2020 3:25 PM EST An aerial drone view of a crude oil … For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels a day compared with 2019. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. Total non-OPEC oil supply rises by 4.5 mb/d to reach 69.5 mb/d by 2025. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks. The majority of crude oil produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oils. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. Petrochemicals become an ever more important driver, with naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane responsible for half of all growth. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. But growth in non-OPEC production is set to lose momentum after a few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries. Oil imports will be coming from places further away, increasing voyage duration and inherently limiting flexibility when dealing with emergencies. Coronavirus lockdowns in Europe and weakening consumption in the Americas will result in global oil demand taking a larger hit in 2020 than previously expected, the Organization of … These nations have notably smaller populations and fewer vehicles and planes that require larger amounts of crude oil. Global oil demand will grow by 5.7 mb/d over the 2019-25 period at an average annual rate of 950 kb/d. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its 2020 and 2021 outlook for oil demand. Oil 2020 looks at the interplay between the expanding US influence in global oil supply and the demand from Asia for exports from the Middle East. These countries are: All other countries account for about 40% of the world’s total oil consumption. Crude oil is a mineral consisting of a mixture of hydrocarbons of natural origin, ranging from yellow to black, and of variable density and viscosity. In a decarbonising world, refiners face a big challenge from weaker transport fuel demand. This is a sharp reduction on the 1.5 mb/d annual pace seen in the past 10-year period. According to the organization, the pandemic’s negative effect on … Based on the above, global oil demand will be back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 if not slightly earlier. This assumes that there is no change to sanctions on Iran or Venezuela. Global oil demand is expected to continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 … For 2021, OPEC sees demand rising by 6.3 million b/d on an annual basis, lower than the 6.5 million it estimated last month and the 7.0 million it estimated in July 2020. Oil Consumption by Country (2020) Examination of the oil consumption commitment of countries. Here are the 10 countries with the highest oil consumption: The World Factbook Refined Petroleum Products - Consumption. In our base case, that assumes $60/bbl Brent, growth is expected to grind to a halt in the early 2020s and production will plateau around 20 mb/d – 2.5 mb/d higher than in 2019. Rystad Energy is forecasting that oil demand will decrease 10.9 percent, or 10.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year over year in 2020. As for OPEC, even though sanctions and economic distress have wiped out 2.5 mb/d of production from Iran and Venezuela since 2017, effective crude oil capacity rises by 1.2 mb/d to 34.1 mb/d. The United States consumes about 19.69 million barrels of oil per day, which is more than the entire European Union. Global oil demand is rebounding after hitting a trough last month as ongoing strong consumption in Asia and Latin America, coupled with a recovery in … Improved efficiency standards and increased penetration of electric vehicles sees demand growth stall. The oil market will suffer a long-lasting blow from the coronavirus, with demand taking years to recover and peaking at a lower level, the International Energy Agency said. Due to its fast ramp-up and rapid decline, US light tight oil (LTO) production is more responsive to a change in the oil price than conventional sources of supply. All major Asian economies are heavily dependent on oil imports. As a result, world oil demand is now expected to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day in 2020, compared to last year. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). The pace of expansion in the United States is slowing as independent producers cut spending and scale back drilling activity in response to pressure from investors. In this case, oil demand in China suffers the most in the first quarter, with a year-on-year fall of 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d). The United States is both the largest producer of oil and the largest consumer. Strong growth in Asian oil demand is creating major opportunities for oil producing countries that can boost exports. The EIA estimates global oil and liquid fuels demand will be 92.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020. The United States, China, and India alone account for over a third of the world’s total oil consumption. In the second quarter, an improving situation in China offsets deteriorating demand elsewhere. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. IEA (2020), Oil 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020. OPEC downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand growth to 0.99 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020. Brazil’s surge in oil demand is a welcome development for a global market that’s been forced to push back expectations for when energy demand might get back to pre-virus levels. To construct a base case for oil demand in 2020, this report draws on a wide range of data sources, including initial data for transport fuel demand, the most affected sector, and recently revised global GDP estimates by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Global oil demand is expected to continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, constricting traveling and economic activity. The projection, contained in OPEC's closely watched monthly oil market report, follows the International Energy Agency's analysis released Monday that forecast a contraction in global demand for 2020 of 90,000 b/d -- which would be the first shrinkage in consumption since the financial crisis in 2009. Brazil, Guyana, Iraq and the UAE also deliver impressive gains. Alaska, Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are the largest oil-producing states in the U.S. In its monthly report, OPEC pegged 2020 oil demand at 89.99 million barrels a day, a decline of 9.77 million barrels a day from 2019 and slightly below its previous estimate. The US leads the way as the largest source of new supply. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. Given its huge resource potential, it could produce even more if prices end up higher than assumed in this report. Oil remains the lifeblood of any war effort today and drives many components of the modern military complex including aircraft, vehicles, warships, small arms, and general industry. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 12 cents, or 0.25%, higher at $48.52 per barrel. With uncertainties over demand, supply, investment strategies and business models, the global oil industry faces major challenges. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO 2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. Looking beyond the short term, the oil market looks comfortably supplied through 2025. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. The impacts vary by fuel. During the medium-term, the US Gulf Coast will solidify its position as the largest seaborne export hub outside the Middle East, adding another 2 mb/d to seaborne crude oil exports. Global demand drops by 2.5 mb/d. Current oversupply and the impact of COVID-19 on demand should not be a reason for complacency when it comes to security of supply. The world’s proven reserves are equivalent to about 46.6 times its annual consumption levels, meaning that the Earth has about 47 years of oil left at the current consumption levels. Non-OPEC supply will rise by 4.5 mb/d while OPEC builds another 1.4 mb/d of crude and natural gas liquids capacity. Reduced jet and kerosene deliveries will impact total oil demand until at least 2022. Following a difficult start in 2020 (-90 kb/d) due to the coronavirus, growth rebounds to 2.1 mb/d in 2021 and decelerates to 800 kb/d by 2025 as transport fuels demand growth stagnates. “Our OPEC outlook for 2020 oil demand is now slightly above 90 million bpd. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. “The oil futures curve flip into contango in March 2020 made it profitable for traders to purchase relatively cheap crude barrels to store at sea, in order to sell forward. To date, announcements by major oil companies on reducing their CO2 emissions have tended to focus on long‑term objectives. 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